Infographic: Consumer spending is shifting. Here's where the growth is.

Our analysis of spending patterns across categories reveals that when consumer confidence wavers, spending gravitates toward two distinct poles: value-for-money purchases and emotional treats. Merchants caught in the middle, offering neither compelling savings nor indulgence, lose wallet share.

Here's what the data shows, why it matters, and how to align your payment strategy to capture growth.

What is actually happening to consumer spending?

Consumers aren't in freefall. But they aren't confident either.

According to the Deloitte financial well-being index, which tracks how people feel about paying bills, saving, and managing daily finances, global consumer sentiment has recovered to roughly April 2020 levels. That's a meaningful bounce from pandemic lows, but still well below historical norms.

The picture this paints is a cautious consumer, not a defeated one. People are still spending. They're just making different choices about where that money goes.

The disconnect between spending intent and actual purchases

One of the most striking findings comes from McKinsey's research on stated versus actual spending behaviour:

Consumers who said they would spend less on furniture actually spent more. Consumers who said grocery spending would stay flat actually spent less.

This pattern repeats across categories. What people tell researchers in surveys doesn't reliably predict what they do at the point of purchase.

This directly impacts your strategy. If you're basing decisions on consumer confidence surveys alone, you're building on unreliable ground. Behavioural data, what consumers actually do, is what matters.

The danger zone: the squeezed middle

The merchants most at risk? Those whose positioning doesn't clearly activate either impulse.

If a customer can't immediately tell whether your offering is a smart, money-saving choice or a treat they deserve, you're in the squeezed middle. That's where wallet share evaporates.

The strategic move: Choose your positioning - value or experience - and commit to it across every customer touchpoint, including checkout.

How the checkout and payment experience reinforces or undermines your position

Your checkout moment either reinforces your positioning or undermines it. This directly affects conversion.

When focusing on value:

Your checkout should amplify the feeling of a smart deal:

• Highlight savings, discounts, and reward points at the point of sale
• Use strategic upselling that reinforces value (e.g., "Add one more for half price")
• Keep payment acceptance broad but optimised, payment processing costs matter when you compete on value
• Show transparent pricing with no surprise fees at checkout

When focusing on treats and splurges:

Your checkout should be effortless and emotionally reassuring:

• Minimise steps between "I want this" and "It's mine"
• Offer a wide range of trusted, preferred payment methods
• Avoid friction that introduces doubt, no unnecessary redirects, no confusing error messages
• Provide calm, clear confirmations that reinforce the emotional reward
• Consider post-purchase touchpoints that extend the good feeling (order confirmation, delivery updates)

Why this matters: A treat purchase, by definition, isn't essential. Every extra click is a chance for the consumer to abandon the purchase. A value purchase is driven by rational calculation. If your checkout introduces hidden costs or fails to reinforce the savings message, the rational case collapses.

Your payment strategy is a conversion tool, not a back-office function.